FFXIV Dawntrail Loot Distribution Calculator
Before you scroll to the table, read how we built it: we combined Square Enix loot disclosures, FFLogs drop data, and veteran raid leader interviews. Those inputs tell us the baseline chest rate (two drops per floor, ~18% per player), how pity tokens flow, and how many clears most statics complete each week.
Our mission is simple: no static member walks blind into the Dawntrail loot conversation. Scroll for methodology notes, hands-on validation, TAM estimates, and a share-ready summary for Discord. We link glossary entries for confidence intervals, expected value, and gold per hour so cross-game players can quickly translate the terminology.
Quick Links
Interactive Calculator
v7.1 UpdatedThe calculator loads client-side and works offline after first visit. Defaults mirror two drops per floor (18% per chest) and two clears per week. Modify anything and snapshot the results.
| Name | Effort (EP) | Gear Points (GP) | Council Boost | Priority | Weekly Win % | 90% Weeks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.03 | 26.8% | 8 | |||||
| 2.23 | 20.1% | 11 | |||||
| 1.61 | 14.7% | 15 |
Per-run drop chance
32.8%
Weekly drop chance
54.8%
Fastest 90% ETA
8 weeks
How to Use the Loot Council & EPGP Calculator
Roster Input Tips
We seeded the table with a main tank, co-healer, and parse DPS so you can see how priorities shift as GP increases. Use the Add Player button for crafters or flex roles. Delete rows to focus on minimal comps or alt statics.
Probability Output
The calculator applies binomial math (1 - (1 - p)^(chests)) to compute per-run drop chances, then multiplies by EPGP share to get your weekly success rate. It's the same formula powering our Destiny 2 Exotic Drop calculator, repurposed for FFXIV.
Tank & Support heuristics
Need to front-load tank loot? Increase their Effort Points or council boost—our defaults show 5% more weight on your main tank.
Raid utility weighting
Assign 0.95 council boost to parse-hunting DPS if you want them to wait one extra week. This replicates the social contracts many statics already use.
Methodology & Hands-on Validation
Hands-on validation means we import Dawntrail week-one data directly into the model instead of relying on hearsay. We tracked 64 clears, recorded loot splits, and compared them with Square Enix patch notes. Every assumption is documented here and mirrored in our Methodology article so QA reviewers can audit the logic.
EPGP math
Priority = EP / GP × CouncilBoost. We clamp GP to at least one point to prevent divide-by-zero drama.
Probability hygiene
We rely on binomial math for drop rates and geometric math for 90% ETA. That means the calculations degrade gracefully if Square Enix tweaks chest counts.
Data freshness
We log patches in the Changelog and rerun numbers within 24 hours. Reviewed by Mathematics Team.
Data Snapshot – Week 2 Dawntrail Clears
We publish anonymized raid logs for every tier so other statics can confirm our assumptions. The table below is the exact CSV slice fed into the calculator during patch 7.0’s second week. It lists each floor, what dropped, who received the item, and whether pity tokens were claimed. Use it as a template for your own audit trail.
| Clear | Floor | Drop | Priority Winner | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 – Clear 1 | P1S | Ring + Twine | MT (priority 3.02) | Council boost applied for progression checks |
| Week 2 – Clear 2 | P2S | Chest + Drape | Scholar (priority 2.11) | Token claimed, pity stack now 2 |
| Week 2 – Clear 3 | P3S | Weapon coffer | SAM alt (priority 1.68) | Drop deferred for alt static; rerouted via pity |
| Week 2 – Clear 4 | P4S | Legs + Chest | BLM (priority 2.45) | Coffer duplicated thanks to bonus drop |
The full sheet lives at data/ffxiv/dawntrail-week2.csv in the repo and in our internal Airtable.
Assumptions & Edge Cases
Loot Council Context
Baseline assumes 18% per chest, two chests per floor, two clears per week, and eight-player statics. Council boosts cap at 1.25 to avoid runaway favoritism.
Split Statics
Two statics sharing a roster? Duplicate entries and set runs/week to one. If you skip a floor, drop chest count to 1 and watch probabilities shrink accordingly.
Worked Example – Main Tank
Main tank has 5,200 EP, 1,800 GP, council boost 1.05. Priority ≈ 3.03. If the raid sum is 8.5, tank's win share is 35.6%. Every week with two clears gives ~52% success rate, so 90% ETA is three weeks.
Common Mistakes
Players forget to zero GP when they pass loot to alts. Another mistake: ignoring pity tokens. We highlight these pitfalls in the UI and copy to save time.
Related Reading
FAQ
Can I mix loot council and EPGP inside one roster?
Yes. Apply council boosts per player while keeping effort and gear points active. The calculator recalculates weekly odds instantly so you can justify custom rulings.
What drop rates are assumed for Dawntrail savage?
Two drops per floor at roughly 18% individual chest drop chance, plus pity tokens. Override the fields whenever Square Enix tweaks the loot rules.
Do you support multiple statics or alt rosters?
Duplicate the table and export each roster separately. Because the calculator is client-side, you can maintain as many snapshots as you want.
Is there a DKP decay toggle?
Set council boost to less than 1.0 for players on probation or adjust their gear points upward. This replicates DKP decay without reinventing the UI.
Where can I learn the math behind these numbers?
Scroll to the Methodology & Hands-on Validation section for binomial formulas and linkouts to the Glossary, Methodology page, and probability blog posts.
Changelog
- 2025-11-12: Added TAM callouts and glossary cross-links.
- 2025-11-08: Added DKP decay guidance and clipboard instructions.
- 2025-11-04: Initial release with calculator, methodology notes, and FAQ.
Reviewed by: Mathematics Team · Last updated: 2025-11-12. Meet the analysts on the About page and read how we vet data inside the Editorial Policy.