Elden Ring Drop Rate CalculatorDiscovery Optimization & Item Farming Statistics

This calculator helps you determine the effective drop rate, expected farming time, and probability milestones for obtaining items in Elden Ring based on your Discovery stat. Whether you're farming for ultra-rare weapons like Magma Blade (0.25% drop rate), completing armor sets from Banished Knights, or optimizing your Arcane build for efficient material farming, understanding how Discovery scales with drop rates is essential for planning extended farming sessions. Our calculator models the linear Discovery scaling formula and provides accurate expected kill counts based on community-tested base drop rates.

Discovery is Elden Ring's hidden stat that directly multiplies item drop rates. Base Discovery is 100 (no bonus), with each point of Arcane adding approximately 1 Discovery. Equipment bonuses from Silver Scarab Talisman (+75 Discovery), Silver Tear Mask (+8 Arcane), and Albinauric Mask (+4 Arcane) stack additively, allowing maximum practical Discovery of ~282-350 depending on your Arcane level. At base Discovery (100), a 1% drop rate item requires an average of 100 kills. At 300 Discovery, effective drop rate becomes 3%, reducing expected kills to just 33—a 67% reduction in farming time. This dramatic efficiency gain makes Discovery optimization crucial for rare item farming, especially for items with base drop rates below 1%.

date,enemy,item,baseRate,discovery,effectiveRate,kills,dropped,notes
2025-04-04,Banished Knight,Chest Armor,0.05,230,0.115,9,true,"Silver Scarab + Arcane 55"
2025-04-04,Banished Knight,Gauntlets,0.05,230,0.115,17,false,"Secondary target"
2025-04-05,Albinauric,Silver Tear Mask,0.06,282,0.169,6,true,"New Game+"
2025-04-05,Winged Dame,Antspur Rapier,0.02,210,0.042,48,false,"No Scarab equipped"
2025-04-06,Fire Prelate,Fire Prelate Armor,0.02,250,0.05,31,true,"Beast Champion rune farm"

Understanding Elden Ring Discovery Stat & Drop Rate Mechanics

How Discovery Scales with Arcane & Equipment

Discovery scaling in Elden Ring is linear and straightforward. Your total Discovery equals 100 (base) + Arcane level + equipment bonuses. A character with 50 Arcane and Silver Scarab Talisman has 100 + 50 + 75 = 225 Discovery. This translates to a 2.25x multiplier on all base drop rates (225 / 100 = 2.25). For a 1% base drop rate item, effective drop rate becomes 2.25%. Expected kills drops from 100 to 44—a significant time savings. Our calculator's Discovery build tool lets you input Arcane level and toggle equipment to instantly see your total Discovery and its impact on farming efficiency.

Arcane Soft Caps & Leveling Strategy

Arcane has soft caps at 20 (70% scaling), 50 (40% scaling), and 80 (20% scaling), affecting damage and status buildup efficiency. However, Discovery scaling is completely linear—each Arcane point from 1 to 99 adds exactly 1 Discovery regardless of soft caps. For pure farming builds, leveling Arcane to 99 maximizes Discovery. Hybrid builds can stop at 50-60 Arcane for strong Discovery (225-235 with Silver Scarab) while maintaining attribute points for Vigor, Endurance, and damage stats. A 50 Arcane build with Silver Scarab achieves 225 Discovery, while 99 Arcane reaches 274 Discovery—only a 22% improvement despite 49 extra stat points.

Silver Scarab Talisman: +75 Discovery Boost

Silver Scarab is the single most impactful Discovery item in Elden Ring. Found in the Abandoned Cave in Consecrated Snowfield (defeat multiple Cleanrot Knights), this talisman adds 75 Discovery—equivalent to 75 levels of Arcane. For a character with 30 Arcane, equipping Silver Scarab increases Discovery from 130 to 205 (57% improvement). This talisman is essential for any farming session. Combined with high Arcane investment, it enables 3-4x drop rate multipliers compared to base stats, transforming 8-hour ultra-rare farms into 2-3 hour sessions.

Equipment Stacking: Masks & Talismans

Silver Tear Mask (+8 Arcane) and Albinauric Mask (+4 Arcane) occupy the helmet slot and cannot be worn simultaneously. Silver Tear Mask is generally preferred for its higher bonus. These masks stack with Silver Scarab (talisman slot), creating powerful farming builds: 99 Arcane + Silver Scarab + Silver Tear Mask = 99 + 75 + 8 + 100 = 282 Discovery (2.82x multiplier). For 0.25% base drops (Magma Blade), this increases effective rate to 0.705%, reducing expected kills from 400 to 142—a 65% time savings worth the stat investment.

Item Rarity Tiers & Base Drop Rates

Elden Ring doesn't publish official drop rates. Community testing through tens of thousands of documented kills has established approximate base rates. Very Common items (basic smithing stones) drop at ~8%. Common items (standard enemy weapons) range from 2-4%. Rare items (unique weapons like Banished Knight Greatsword) are ~0.5-1%. Ultra Rare items (Magma Blade, Noble's Slender Sword) drop at 0.25-0.5%. Our calculator includes presets for these tiers, but you can input custom rates from wikis like Fextralife or Elden Ring Wiki based on the specific item you're farming.

Magma Blade: The Notorious 0.25% Drop

Magma Blade, dropped by Man-Serpents in Volcano Manor, is infamous as one of Elden Ring's rarest items. Community aggregated data from over 20,000 documented kills estimates a 0.25% base drop rate (1 in 400 kills). At base Discovery (100), players average 400 kills—at 40-60 kills/hour farming rates, this translates to 6-10 hours. With optimized Discovery (282+), expected kills drop to ~142 (2-4 hours). This item exemplifies why Discovery optimization matters: a 99 Arcane + Silver Scarab build cuts farming time by nearly 70% compared to base stats.

Community Data Sources & Verification

Use community wikis like Fextralife and r/Eldenring for base drop rate data. Reliable estimates require 1,000+ kill samples. Individual experiences vary wildly due to variance—a player obtaining Magma Blade on kill #10 doesn't mean 10% drop rate. Always cross-reference multiple sources and prioritize data with documented sample sizes. Input conservative (lower) drop rates into the calculator for pessimistic time estimates, reducing disappointment from bad RNG.

Expected Value and Probability Distributions

Drop rates follow a geometric distribution—each kill is an independent trial with fixed success probability. Expected attempts equals 1/p where p is drop probability (as decimal). For 1% drop rate (p = 0.01), expected attempts = 1 / 0.01 = 100 kills. However, geometric distributions have high variance at low probabilities. Standard deviation for 1% drop is 99 kills, meaning 68% of players will obtain the item between 1 and 199 kills, with 16% requiring 200+ kills. Understanding variance prevents frustration during unlucky streaks—you're not "cursed," just experiencing normal statistical variation.

Probability Milestones: 50%, 90%, 99%

Our calculator shows kills required for 50%, 90%, and 99% cumulative success probability. For 1% drop rate: 50% chance requires 69 kills, 90% requires 230 kills, 99% requires 459 kills. These milestones use the formula n = ln(1-P) / ln(1-p). The 50% milestone (median) is lower than expected value (100 kills) because the geometric distribution is right-skewed—half of players will succeed before the average, but extreme outliers pull the mean higher than the median.

Variance & Individual Results

Expected values are averages across thousands of trials—your personal experience will differ. For rare items (<1% drop), actual results can easily be 50-200% of expected value. Obtaining Magma Blade on kill #50 (expected: 400) or requiring 800 kills are both plausible outcomes within 2 standard deviations. Maintain patience during farming and understand that "bad luck" streaks are statistically normal. Our calculator helps set realistic expectations and plan inventory/stamina for extended sessions.

Sample Size & Regression to the Mean

Over large samples (farming multiple items), results converge toward expected values. A player farming 10 different 1% items will total ~1,000 kills (10 × 100), with individual items ranging from 30 to 300 kills but aggregate aligning with expectations. This is regression to the mean. Single-item farms have high variance; multi-item farms average out. Use our calculator to estimate total farming time across multiple target items for accurate session planning.

Optimal Farming Builds & Discovery Investment Strategy

Pure Arcane Farming Build (99 Arcane + Full Discovery Equipment)

Maximum Discovery build: 99 Arcane, Silver Scarab Talisman, Silver Tear Mask. Total Discovery: 99 + 75 + 8 + 100 = 282 (2.82x multiplier). This build maximizes drop rate efficiency for dedicated farming sessions. Weapon choice: Reduvia (Arcane scaling dagger) or Rivers of Blood (Arcane/Dex katana) for killing efficiency. Stats: 40 Vigor (survivability), 15-20 Endurance, 99 Arcane, minimal Strength/Dex (weapon requirements only). This build sacrifices combat performance for farming speed, ideal for players with multiple characters or post-game farming.

Hybrid Combat-Farming Build (50-60 Arcane + Balanced Stats)

Balanced approach: 50-60 Arcane, Silver Scarab Talisman. Discovery: 225-235 (2.25-2.35x multiplier). Reserve attribute points for 60 Vigor, 25-30 Endurance, and weapon stat requirements (Strength/Dex). This build provides 80% of max Discovery efficiency while maintaining combat viability for general gameplay. Ideal for players farming while progressing through content or using their main character. The 18% efficiency loss (282 vs 235 Discovery) translates to ~22% longer farming time—acceptable trade-off for playability.

Respec Strategy: Larval Tears & Build Switching

Larval Tears (found throughout the game) allow stat respeccing at Rennala in Liurnia. Strategic players respec to pure Arcane builds before extended farming sessions, then respec back to combat builds afterward. A single Larval Tear costs one respec cycle (to farming build and back). For ultra-rare items requiring 5+ hours of farming, the Discovery boost from 60→99 Arcane saves 1-2 hours—well worth a Larval Tear. Use our calculator to compare farming times at different Arcane levels to decide if respeccing is worthwhile.

Equipment Slot Opportunity Cost

Silver Scarab occupies a talisman slot (typically used for Soreseal, Dragoncrest Shield, or offensive talismans). Silver Tear Mask replaces combat helmets (often used for set bonuses or specific resistances). During farming, these opportunity costs are irrelevant—enemy difficulty in farming locations is low. However, for players farming in dangerous areas (e.g., Consecrated Snowfield Albinaurics), maintaining one defensive talisman might prevent deaths that waste time. Balance Discovery optimization with survivability to maintain kill efficiency.